WORLD AGENCY OF PLANETARY MONITORING AND EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

Purpose of WAPMERR.

WAPMERR was created in 2001 in Geneva, Switzerland, as a non-profit organization for the purposes of reducing risk due to disasters and for rescue planning after disasters. These goals are achieved by advancing methods of real-time loss estimates after earthquakes, through monitoring by satellite images and by earthquake prediction research. In these efforts, we are collaborating with scientists in several western European countries, Russia, the USA, Japan, India and South America .

Real-Time Loss Estimates after Earthquakes.

Within about two hours of any significant earthquake worldwide, WAPMERR issues a loss estimate in collaboration with the Swiss Seismo-logical Service. This includes number of fatalities and injured, as well as average damage to buildings in all affected settlements. Tests show that in 85% of cases, earthquakes that cause major disasters can be distinguished from inconsequential ones. The table at the bottom shows the alert issued 43 minutes after an earthquake in Moroco that killed approximately 1000 people. Five hours later, news reports still mentioned only 20 deaths, and the government of Moroco rejected offers for help. 

COMMENT: If the epicenter was located further north, as some European agencies calculate, then it is possible that no fatalities occurred. However, if the USGS epicenter is correct, this may be serious.

Loss Estimates for Scenario Earthquakes.

Future large earthquakes that are likely to happen, or repeats of historic earthquakes, are modeled as scenarios. For example, M8 earthquakes along the Himalaya are likely to affect 3000 settlements and as many as 150,000 people may die, in a single event. The map shows the average damage in the settlements by a colour code. Black – collapsed, brown – heavy destruction, red - heavy damage, yellow – medium damage, green – moderate damage, blue – slight damage.

Satellite Images.

WAPMERR uses satellite images to assess damage after earthquakes and to estimate the properties of the building stock. The latter are important for improving estimates of losses in the scenario and real-time mode for developing countries. The image at right was the first taken after the earthquake of M6.7 in Bam, Iran, on 26 Dec. 2003.

Earthquake Prediction Research.

Seismicity patterns (change in rate of microearthquakes) as a function of time and space can be used to estimate the location and the likelihood of future significant earthquakes. The hypothesis of precursory seismic quiescence was confirmed by WAPMERR research. This showed that in a large part of normally active Sakhalin Island not a single earthquake occurred during 2.5 years before the M7.6 Neftegorsk earthquake of 26 May 1995 that killed about 2000 people. The map at the left shows the center of the region of statistically most significant quiescence in red.

Earthquake Tectonics, Hazard and Risk.

Studies of tectonics, seismicity patterns, and seismic hazard assessment are combined to assess the earthquake risk The three dimensional map of the ratio of small to medium sized earthquakes (b-value) shows that this parameter varies strongly over distances of only 1 km in the southern Iceland seismic zone. In this area, as in others WAPMERR investigated, main shock ruptures emanate from the volumes with the largest percentage of medium sized earthquakes (darkest blue in the figure).

Collaboration.

In separate projects, WAPMERR personnel is working together with the following research groups: Federal Institute of Technology, Zuerich, Switzerland; Geoforschungszentrum, Potsdam, Germany; University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA; University of Southern California, USA; University of California, Los Angeles, USA; University of California, Berkeley, USA; Universidad Nacional de Mexico, Juriquilla, Mexico; Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland; University Kiel, Germany; Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.

WAPMERR is a member of the EU-funded project PREPARED, which aims to advance earthquake prediction methods, using data from Iceland. Due to the current status of Switzerland w.r.t. the EU, the support of WAPMERR for this project comes from the Swiss Bundesamt fuer Bildung und Wissenschaft in Bern.

For more information contact director Prof. Max Wyss (addresses see below).