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QLARM |
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What is
QLARM? |
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Advanced Features |
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Scenario Loss
Estimates |
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Real Time Loss Estimates |
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QLARM within 2008/09 WHO and ISDR Campaign for Hospitals Safe from Disasters |
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QLARM is a computer tool to estimate building damage and human losses due to earthquakes anywhere in the world.
The input needed for a loss calculation is the earthquake origin
hour, the coordinates of the epicenter, the depth and the magnitude. The program then calculates the ground shaking as a function of distance from the epicenter. In the data base of
QLARM, the population of about 2 million settlements is known and each settlement has a profile of building fragility. The degree of damage due to the calculated shaking is determined for each of five fragility classes, and from that the resulting numbers of fatalities and injured are estimated.
The most accurate results could be obtained if the building inventory had been compiled by engineers on the ground. However, this is not possible for most cities, especially in developing countries. For this reason, the building fragilities have been calibrated, using about 1000 earthquakes for which losses are known. Therefore,
QLARM estimates are most reliable in countries where earthquakes occur frequently. The building stock in countries without recent earthquakes is extrapolated from neighboring areas with similar building style and quality.
A true test of the performance is provided by real-time
estimates because no adjusting of parameters is possible to achieve the correct results. The real-time estimates are usually distributed
by email and telephone call less than 30 minutes after an earthquake occurs. They can assist rescue teams to make a decision whether or not to mobilize.
Recent alerts can be seen
on our website including maps.
The output of QLARM consists of an estimated range of numbers of fatalities and one of injured, a map showing the expected average degree of damage in the settlements affected. If needed a list of settlements can be supplied with the expected numbers of fatalities and
injured, as well as the percentage of buildings expected to fall into each of 5 classes of destruction. An example of a map showing the degree of destruction in settlements is shown for the
earthquake of the year . |
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Advanced Features |
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QLARM
worldwide database of the elements-at-risk.
We construct the QLARM database using: 1) point
city models for the cases where only summary data for
the entire city are available; and,
2) discrete city models where data regarding city sub-divisions
(districts) are available.
We attribute the following parameters to the city
models. (1) Soil
amplification factors. (2)
Distribution of building stock and population into EMS-98 vulnerability
classes or building types.
The soil amplification factors for QLARM city models
are to be defined in accordance with the national soil
classification or local microzonation data, or using the
estimates of Vs30, based on topography (Wald and
Allen, 2007).
The building distributions to be developed depend on
the available data resolution considering also the
structural subclasses, the period of construction, the
height of the buildings and the level of seismic protection.
QLARM seismic demand.
We calculate the seismic demand in terms of (1)
macroseismic (seismic intensity) or (2) instrumental (PGA)
parameters. Attenuation
relationships predicting both parameters are used for
different regions worldwide, considering the tectonic regime
and wave propagation characteristics.
QLARM loss estimation module. We calculate the expected damage (mean damage degree by city model and
probability of occurrence of all damage states) using
vulnerability models for EMS-98 vulnerability classes or
building types (Lagomarsino and Giovinazzi, 2005) included
in the QLARM database. Then
the losses (fatalities and injured) are calculated using the
following parameters. (1)
Building collapse rates pertinent to different regions
worldwide (source: World Housing Encyclopaedia and PAGER).
(2) Casualty matrices pertinent to EMS-98
vulnerability classes or building types (ATC-13 and
HAZUS-99). We
define both parameters as a function of the seismic demand.
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Losses can also be estimated for scenario earthquakes. That means, earthquakes that are likely to occur in the future. The parameters of scenario earthquakes have to be estimated by expert opinion. The location could be selected in a segment of a plate boundary that has not ruptured recently, but where an earthquake rupture happened nearby not long ago, a seismic gap. The magnitude can be derived from the length of the gap, or by selecting the mean magnitude of the historic large earthquakes in the vicinity. An example for losses
due to scenario earthquakes is shown for the Himalaya .
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WAPMERR provides loss estimates for earthquakes hours after they happen anywhere on the Globe. These are called real-time estimates.
The purpose is to alert international rescue agencies and to test QUAKELOSS in a way that allows no subconscious adjusting of the results.
The early track record has been published:
Wyss, M. (2004), Real-time prediction of earthquake
casualties.
In a preliminary table we summarize alerts distributed, giving the parameters
of the earthquakes, the estimated number of fatalities, the observed number (if available), and the hours of delay after which the estimate was distributed. The time of the report depends on the availability of the earthquake parameters from the United States Geological Survey.
The delay of our alerts w.r.to this latter input is given in
the last column. The earthquakes selected depend on their magnitude and position on the Globe, according to the needs of the Swiss Corps for Humanitarian Help.
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